PREDICTION: Canon Will Put a Pellicle Mirror into 1D & 7D Successors


I have said it before, and I am reiterating it yet again. Canon has no choice but to reintroduce the pellicle mirror into the EF mount DSLR line of cameras:

https://photonicshunkan.blogspot.com/2019/05/prediction-canon-will-reintroduce.html

The key factor is that there are too many EF mount users to be able to expect them to dump this mount for mirrorless EVF cameras. The only way to modernise the EF mount line is by reintroducing the pellicle mirror. This will give the camera live exposure preview along with all the other features that are drawing users to mirrorless EVF cameras. Canon will probably introduce IBIS along with eye detect AF because the Nikon D6 is going to get IBIS just like the mirrorless Z mount bodies have already got it (once Nikon adopts a feature Canon follows suit).

There is a rumour that Canon is ending its 7D lineage of cameras. I predict that at the same time that the 1D line is upgraded to a pellicle mirror model, the 7D line will also be upgraded to a pellicle mirror EVF model. Due to a major change in the engineering structure of the camera through the implementation of the pellicle mirror, the new high-end APS-C body to succeed the 7DII will be given a new designation and no longer be called 7Dx (eg 7DIII). This rumour has sellers worried as 7D users are good buyers of lenses, but Canon is aware of the importance of not abandoning them (that would be suicide). A fast frame rate APS-C EF mount body with a pellicle mirror and EVF will serve 7D line users very well.

I predict that the 1D line will also get a global shutter to completely eliminate both shutter shock as well as mirror shock. To keep costs down, the 7D replacement APS-C pellicle mirror line will probably not get a global shutter, but it will still have a pellicle mirror giving it a highly competitive frame rate while eliminating shutter shock. It will have IBIS, live exposure preview, and eye detect AF.

This will mark the first time Canon has introduced a pellicle mirror into a camera line since the 1N RS from 1995:




Pellicle mirror cameras are nothing unusual for Canon. The unusual thing is that the pellicle mirror has been absent from Canons for such a long time. They will soon be coming back. Canon has no choice.

A few relevant negatives:

1. NO Canon will not yet put out an R mount APS-C line as this will clash with the M mount. Yes, in future, Canon will probably retire the M mount line and introduce an APS-C R mount mirrorless line, but not quite yet. They have other priorities, especially while the M mount cameras are still selling fairly well.
2. NO Canon will not yet put out a high frame rate moving subject high-end R mount body (like the α9) because there are not yet enough super telephoto lenses for this mount in production and Canon needs to put out more commonly used focal lengths for the R mount as a priority. The EF mount is still the moving subject field photography platform of first choice.
3. NO Canon will not make an APS-C mirrorless EF mount equivalent of a 7D. That would be silly as the space for the mirror box in the optical pathway would serve no useful purpose and just be dead space making the body bigger, while degrading the optics for no gain. Canon will make use of that space by putting a pellicle mirror into it.
4. NO, I can't say if a replacement to the 5Ds will come with a pellicle mirror. Pellicle mirrors should be reserved for fast frame rate moving subject cameras. A high-resolution body will make more sense if it were made for the mirrorless R mount. There may be no 5Ds successor high-resolution body for the EF mount or at least it will be at the bottom of Canon's list of priorities (though there is a place for a high-resolution fast frame rate moving subject field camera). The EF mount will be focussed on fast frame rate moving subject photography, for all other purposes the mirrorless R mount will take precedence.
5. NO, I do not have as much confidence in predicting what Nikon might do. Will they make a Z mount equivalent of the α9 with the same stacked sensor? Probably not because they have too many F mount users and no super telephoto lenses for the Z mount. They could put the Sony 24MP stacked sensor into the upcoming D6, add IBIS, then max out the frame rate of the mechanical reflex mirror given the absence of evidence that they are investigating pellicle mirror designs given recent remarks they have made about ongoing concerns with EVF lag shooting fast moving subjects ("that teeny, tiny little delay can be recognizable by the best of the best, by professional sports shooters"). Unlike Nikon, Canon has a strong tradition of implementing pellicle mirror designs (Canon already has plenty of related patents).
6. YES, there is a risk of predictions being wrong. Yes, Canon may just make a 1DX II and 7D successor with a conservative spec bump compared to predecessors with no major structural changes to basic engineering principles eg a move from reflex to pellicle mirror, OVF to EVF. But even so, this transition remains unavoidable for Canon in the long run. The analysis here is based on the fact that mirrorless EVF cameras can achieve a high frame rate and if the EF mount line is to remain competitive with them they will need to either modernise or cease to exist. Just killing off the EF mount line would be economic suicide so Canon has to modernise it instead.


Final Remarks

No, the above predictions are NOT a rumour. It is a prediction based upon analysis of market and engineering factors. I have no industry insider information or contacts. No, I have no conflicts of interest to declare (other than being a partial Canon user). No, this is not a personal fantasy wish list, but an attempt at a neutral predictive analysis of trends. No, I am not particularly in the market for any of the predicted models mentioned above. Yes, once Canon implements pellicle mirrors with EVF across the board for most of the EF mount range, people will suddenly all say how obvious it was this was always going to happen. This post exists so I can say "I told you", even though everyone ignored me or thought I was crazy at the time.

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